While many in the cryptocurrency space dream of a million-dollar Bitcoin, one of the industry’s most influential voices is hoping that milestone remains a distant fantasy, at least for next year. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, has delivered a sobering message: a seven-figure Bitcoin price in the near future would not be a cause for celebration but a dire warning sign of a US economy in serious trouble.
“People who cheer for the million-dollar Bitcoin price next year, I was like, ‘Guys, it only gets there if we’re in such a shitty place domestically,’” Novogratz stated in a recent interview on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell.
Stability Over Sky-High Prices
For Novogratz, the health of the nation outweighs the allure of astronomical crypto gains. He emphasized that a stable society is far more valuable than a volatile market fueled by economic distress.
“I’d rather have a lower Bitcoin price in a more stable United States than the opposite,” he explained.
His argument is rooted in a classic economic principle. When a national currency, like the US dollar, undergoes severe devaluation, citizens and investors scramble to protect their wealth. They seek out “safe haven” assets that can preserve value. Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” is a primary candidate for this role. A rush into Bitcoin on this scale would imply a catastrophic loss of faith in the dollar, an event often accompanied by profound social and civil disruption.
This cautious sentiment is shared by others in the industry. Crypto analyst Wolf Of All Streets expressed a similar view in a July 2023 interview, noting, “The faster it happens, the worse the world is.”
The Bullish Counterpoint
However, Novogratz’s cautious outlook stands in contrast to the fervent optimism of other prominent Bitcoin advocates. Several industry leaders are not only predicting a million-dollar Bitcoin but believe it could happen soon.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has been vocal about his bullish predictions, projecting a price range of $750,000 to $1 million by 2026. More recently, Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, told Cointelegraph Magazine that a $1 million price point could be reached “maybe this year, maybe next year.” These predictions are typically based on factors like increasing institutional adoption, supply scarcity, and a belief in Bitcoin’s long-term technological and monetary superiority.
Deeper Concerns Over US Debt and Policy
Novogratz’s anxiety is directly tied to the ballooning US national debt. He voiced concern over the country’s fiscal trajectory, specifically pointing to the perceived ineffectiveness of current and proposed economic strategies.
He suggested that even potential changes in leadership may not solve the problem, remarking that Donald Trump’s prospective Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, “is failing at bending debt to GDP.” Novogratz concluded grimly, “The deficit is going to be higher, not lower.”
A Bubble in the Making? The “Frenzy” of Corporate Bitcoin Adoption
Beyond macroeconomic fears, Novogratz is also wary of a potential bubble forming within the crypto market itself, centered on the trend of companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This strategy, known as the “Bitcoin treasury play,” has gained significant traction.
“I’m a little nervous in general that there is what feels like a frenzy,” he admitted, revealing that Galaxy Digital now fields about five calls a week from companies looking to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
This surge in interest reminds him of classic market top signals. “At one point, that’s what bubbles feel like, when the cab driver asks you about the balance sheet company,” he warned.
His concern is echoed by venture capital firm Breed, which noted a few months ago that while some Bitcoin treasury companies will succeed, many that trade close to their net asset value (NAV) risk falling into a vicious “death spiral” during market downturns.
In the end, Novogratz’s perspective serves as a crucial reminder that asset prices do not exist in a vacuum. While the dream of a million-dollar Bitcoin excites many, its rapid arrival could be a pyrrhic victory—a sign that the foundational economic systems we rely on are beginning to crumble.
