Notcoin (NOT) is facing a critical moment as its price continues to struggle against a sea of red. With a correction of nearly 14% in the past week and 28% over the last three months, the token has been unable to capitalize on the broader market’s recent rally. Now, trading just 19.4% above its all-time low, the path of least resistance appears to be downward.
While intense selling near record lows is a traditionally bearish sign, a deeper analysis reveals a complex tug-of-war between retail sellers and large-scale investors. Two key metrics could ultimately decide whether Notcoin breaks down to new lows or stages an unlikely recovery.
Exchange Flows Reveal a Market Divided
One of the clearest indicators of market sentiment is the flow of tokens onto exchanges. Over the past seven days, Notcoin exchange inflows have surged by 6.5%, bringing the total balance on trading platforms to a staggering 30.39 billion NOT. This trend suggests that many retail holders are capitulating, moving their assets to exchanges with the intent to sell, likely driven by fear of further price declines.
However, this panic selling tells only one side of the story. On-chain data reveals that the top 100 Notcoin addresses have been net buyers during this same period. This divergence—where smaller holders sell while “whales” accumulate—is a significant dynamic to watch. If these large holders continue to absorb the selling pressure and exchange inflows begin to slow or reverse into outflows, it could mark a crucial turning point for market sentiment. For now, however, the overwhelming selling pressure keeps the bulls on the defensive.
Technical Danger: The Looming Death Crossover
Notcoin’s technical chart is flashing a major warning sign. On the 4-hour timeframe, a “death crossover” is threatening to form, a pattern that has preceded sharp price drops in recent sessions. This occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one, signaling a potential shift to sustained bearish momentum.
Specifically, the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is rapidly approaching a cross below the 200-period EMA. An EMA is a type of price indicator that gives more weight to recent price data, making it highly responsive to trend changes. Should this crossover be confirmed while exchange inflows remain high, it could act as a catalyst, accelerating a move to retest the $0.0018 support level or even establish a new all-time low.
A Lone Bullish Signal Stands its Ground
Amid the bearish outlook, one technical indicator offers a sliver of hope: a bullish divergence on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). The CMF is an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure over a set period by analyzing both price and volume.
Between August 5 and August 14, while the Notcoin price fell to a lower low, the CMF indicator printed a higher low. This divergence suggests that the selling pressure, while still present, may be starting to lose its momentum.
However, this signal comes with a major caveat. The CMF remains in negative territory, confirming that sellers are still in control. For this bullish divergence to translate into a meaningful price reversal, three conditions must be met:
The CMF must cross above the zero line into positive territory.
Accumulation from the top 100 addresses must continue or increase.
Exchange flows must shift from net inflows to net outflows.
What’s Next for Notcoin?
The immediate future for Notcoin hinges on which forces win out. The dominant trend remains bearish, with strong selling pressure and a threatening technical setup pointing toward further downside. A confirmed death crossover could easily push the price below the $0.0018 support, putting the all-time low of $0.0016 in jeopardy.
A bullish reversal remains possible but requires a perfect alignment of factors. If whale buying can successfully absorb the retail sell-off and the CMF divergence is validated by a push into positive territory, a relief bounce toward the 0.0020 resistance zone could materialize. Until then, the risk of setting a new all-time low remains the most probable outcome.
