The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with anticipation as a wave of Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications floods the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Among the most watched contenders is XRP, and with recent legal and market developments, the odds of a spot XRP ETF approval are surging.
While a futures-based product, the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, already exists in the US, the real prize for investors is a spot ETF, which would directly hold XRP. Thanks to the resolution of a long-standing legal battle and growing institutional interest, that reality may be just around the corner.
The Lawsuit’s Impact: A Game-Changer for XRP
The single most significant catalyst for the current optimism is the conclusion of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit. On August 8, the case was resolved with Ripple facing a $125 million fine. More importantly, the outcome provided crucial regulatory clarity for XRP. The court’s decision affirmed that XRP sold on public secondary exchanges is not a security, though institutional sales were deemed to fall under securities laws.
This legal clarity was the green light the market was waiting for. It effectively removed the primary obstacle that stood in the way of an ETF application’s approval. Market sentiment shifted dramatically following the news, with prediction markets like Polymarket showing the probability of an XRP ETF approval currently sitting around a strong 73%, after initially spiking to 85%.
The verdict also sparked speculation among industry leaders. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, immediately suggested that asset management giant BlackRock would likely file for an XRP ETF. While BlackRock later clarified it has no current plans to do so, the comment highlights the high level of expectation within the industry.
What the Experts Are Saying: Bullish Forecasts Dominate
Financial analysts and crypto experts are overwhelmingly bullish, predicting that an ETF approval would trigger a significant market rally and attract a flood of institutional capital.
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, expressed strong conviction, stating, “I absolutely believe there will be an XRP ETF this year.” In a recent podcast, he highlighted the pent-up institutional demand, predicting that XRP could attract “$5 billion in investment in its first month post-ETF launch.” He noted that the lawsuit’s conclusion has significantly accelerated this momentum.
Crypto analyst Kenny Nguyen offered an even more dramatic price prediction. “XRP SHOULD BE AROUND $22 – $50 WHEN THE FIRST WAVE OF SPOT XRP ETFS KICKED IN,” he stated, implying a potential market capitalization for XRP between $1.3 trillion and $3 trillion.
The sentiment is echoed internationally. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange commented on the situation, explaining, “A spot XRP ETF cannot be approved by the SEC as long as you are involved in a legal dispute… That’s over now. So, from this point of view, nothing should stand in the way of a Spot XRP ETF now.”
Adding to the chorus of positive outlooks, a Bloomberg analyst has estimated the odds of an XRP ETF approval at an overwhelming 95%.
The Road Ahead: Who’s in the Race and When’s the Deadline?
The interest from asset managers is undeniable. A growing list of prominent firms has already submitted applications for a spot XRP ETF, including:
Grayscale
21Shares
Bitwise
Canary Capital
WisdomTree
Franklin Templeton
CoinShares
RexShares
Volatility Shares
While the industry is ready, the SEC has delayed its decision on the current batch of applications. All eyes are now on the final decision deadline, which is expected to fall between October 18 and October 25.
As the dates approach, the convergence of regulatory clarity, strong institutional interest, and expert consensus has created a powerful narrative. The approval of a spot XRP ETF would not only be a monumental event for XRP holders but would also mark another significant step in the mainstream adoption of digital assets in the United States.
