New York — The squeeze on Bitcoin miners is expected to tighten further in December. Despite facing near-record low profitability metrics, the network’s mining difficulty is projected to tick upward during the next adjustment, according to recent data.
Difficulty Adjustment Looming
On December 11, the Bitcoin network is scheduled to undergo its automatic difficulty adjustment. Projections from CoinWarz indicate a marginal increase from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion. This adjustment, expected at block 927,360, follows a recent decrease on Thursday that saw difficulty drop from 152.2 trillion.
The adjustment mechanism is designed to keep block production times stable at around 10 minutes. Currently, the average block time sits just below that target at approximately 9.97 minutes, triggering the slight automated increase in difficulty to compensate for the speed.
The “Hashprice” Problem
The upcoming difficulty hike comes at a precarious time for mining economics. The “hashprice”—a critical metric tracking the expected revenue a miner can earn per unit of computing power—is languishing near historic lows.
Current Hashprice: Hovering around $38.30 per petahash/day (PH/s).
Recent Low: This is a slight recovery from November 21, when it dipped below $35 PH/s.
The Break-Even Line: Analysts estimate that $40 PH/s acts as a general break-even threshold. Below this point, many miners operate at a loss, forcing them to consider unplugging hardware to save on electricity costs.
Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks
Compounding the economic pressure is a looming supply chain threat involving Bitmain, the Beijing-based giant that manufactures the vast majority of the world’s mining rigs (ASICs).
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is reportedly investigating Bitmain over concerns that their hardware could be used for espionage or remote access, echoing earlier warnings from U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren regarding national security risks.
With Bitmain commanding an estimated 80% market share of mining hardware, any potential U.S. sanctions, tariffs, or restrictions could severely disrupt the supply of new machines, making it even harder for American miners to upgrade their fleets and stay competitive in an already brutal market.
Industry Outlook
As 2025 closes, miners find themselves in a “perfect storm” of rising difficulty, stagnant profitability, and regulatory uncertainty. The slight difficulty increase in December, while mathematically necessary for the network, adds another layer of pressure to an industry already operating on razor-thin margins.
